Business Forecast Audit

An Informed Foresight Demands a Profound Understanding of People and Markets’ Behaviours

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Business forecasting is no more accurate now than it was 15 years ago despite progress in research technology.

Progress in data collection and analytics, and processing technologies were supposed to boost accuracy but this hasn’t happened.

Presently, the vast majority of forecasting agencies prefer projections that underestimate volatility for many reasons:

  • Innate dislike for uncertainty
  • Tendency to underestimate volatility on purpose, especially for well-established businesses
  • Innate inclination to toe-the-line and conform to competitors
  • Inadequate understanding of qualitative factors
Most forecasters often miss period of rapid growth, abrupt change of directions, shocks and contractions. They even get the magnitude of changes way off the mark. Usually, forecasters can accurately predict directional changes but not amplitudes. Their accuracy is only slightly higher than projections that are based on the previous year’s or historical trends.

Boost the Accuracy of Your Business Forecasts

Let us audit, in all confidentiality, your business forecasts by using our proprietary methodology. Get some of the most accurate projections in these fields:

– Sales forecast– Marketing forecast– Production budget
– Costing budget– Demand planning– Risk simulation
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Our business forecasters view data within specific contexts as they have proprietary modelling tools to correlate events in “Cause/Effect” relationships that enable them to properly assess triggers, reactions and consequences. Our analysts:

  • Pay attention to the underlying socio-cultural behaviors other than our own idiosyncrasies
  • We are not culturally-attached to our own backgrounds and experiences
  • Organic and profound insights into people and markets’ behaviors, and proficiency in chain activity analyses
– We maintain critical and analytical approaches
– Use the right tools and weights
– We are humble to not project a false sense of misleading confidence
– Incorporate profound and up-to-date qualitative and quantitative data into our process
– Have grit and guts to not toe-the-line when ample proofs are at hand
– Spot pivots, patterns and trends few others can see

The Critical Role of Qualitative Insights

The ways buyers react when stimulated by new products or services, novel technologies, or market trends for example, and by how much, have a deep impact on your project’s revenues and profitability. This is why we find that, contrary to common practice, solid and reliable financial assumptions are founded on qualitative insights (more so than on quantitative data).

To us, a business forecast is the jewel in the crown, and the tip of the iceberg of a much-deeper quantitative and qualitative analyses, illustrated below:

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A forecast is part of the strategic planning and more than a simple forecast because it assigns responsibility to the budgetee to meet objectives. The budget is a planning and controlling tool. Forecasts and budgets are not constrained to financial management; production budgets, demand planning and other types of budgets are detrimental to the performance of individual divisions, to inter-departmental coordination and to the overall result. Hence, our team casts a wider net and keeps its eyes firmly set on the surrounding external and internal conditions, and the ever-changing variables and landscapes. We appreciate the strengths and limitations of predictive analytics but to us, data is a means to an end and never an end of itself.

We are a data-driven company; and we do recommend our clients to make data-driven decisions. But our team isn’t single-minded about data nor blinded by quantitative analyses. Purely data-driven decisions bear inherent risks such as propagate the past onto the future, push to ever-more intense content, detachment and virtual reality and meltdown-inducing over-confidence.

Companies and investors depend on accurate short and long-term forecasts for economic, employment, financial and marketing uses.

The Seven Wise Men genuinely appreciates the trust with which organizations use our forecasts to support planning and operational decisions. Our clients need to operate using accurate information and to incorporate reliable data into their decision-making processes before committing rare and substantial resources into projects.

An Award-winning Forecasting Agency

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As one of the most accurate and dependable forecasting agency in Dubai, an international award, media appearances, and proofs back our commitment to deliver expected results, on-time.