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The pros and cons of the next technological revolution (Quantum computing)

GDP increase through the centuries

In the next technological revolution, we believe that humanity will be closer than ever to reaching the full limits of Science & Technology; not in the sense of new scientific discoveries but in terms of sharing of prosperity, and diminishing returns and added-value.

In this new economic cycle, the worth of anything will be justified by high-levels of non-standardized creative processes. For anything to succeed, it’d need a constant flow of creative innovations to stay even slightly relevant.

The next quantum computing cycle (the 6th technological revolution) will be about education, information, productivity improvement and digital money. This era will create extreme wealth because of new efficiencies but income distribution and social inequities will become extremely polarized and socio-economic pressures acute. The creation of new sectors and sub-sectors will be difficult because quantum science demands great investments in fixed assets and resources that only Big Tech + Big Business can afford. These high entry barriers will prevent spreading the wealth more equitably to governments, businesses and households (or production factors). More than at any point of time in human history, wealth will be highly concentrated in the hands of the very few.

We expect the quantum era to last for 30 years instead of the previous five eras’ average of 60, and that it’d bring about social unrest at an earlier pace and greater violence than those that marked the endings of each of the five preceding economic revolutions. The quality of life may quickly deteriorate because people will have to keep figuring out how to move from physical labour to mental labour – which is more exhausting and incendiary.

History proves that inhumane working conditions, constant supervision and inspection and endless hours at the factories (/working remotely at homes) always give rise to resentment which snowballs into violence when production factors are dissatisfied as they are incapable of competing with the new forms of production and with an inequitable sharing of prosperity.